There is a reason Marc Guehi keeps resurfacing as January opens: he is the rare Premier League centre-back who can credibly improve elite squads without needing a tactical rewrite. But the latest reporting around Manchester City being third in the queue behind domestic rivals is also a reminder that “interest” and “priority” are not the same thing, particularly when Crystal Palace hold a strong negotiating position and the player’s timing options widen as the contract clock ticks down.
According to Football365, City are behind two Premier League sides viewed as preferred destinations, with Liverpool and Arsenal framed as the likelier landing spots. That ordering matters because it shapes how Palace pitch a January sale. If the market believes City are chasing rather than leading, the leverage shifts towards whichever club can offer the cleanest sporting project and the clearest pathway to minutes.
Why the “third place” tag matters more than it sounds
In winter windows, clubs do not just negotiate with selling teams; they negotiate with the player’s sense of timing. If a top defender thinks his strongest leverage arrives in the summer, January requires a compelling reason to move: an irresistible sporting offer, a significant wage jump, or a club willing to pay a fee that makes the selling side comfortable about the disruption.
Being labelled “third” in a race is not a verdict on Pep Guardiola’s appeal, but it does suggest City are not the only elite option and may not be the player’s preferred sporting fit. That has consequences for how aggressively City would be prepared to bid in January. Clubs tend to go hardest when they believe the player is already aligned with the move. When that alignment is uncertain, the numbers often become more conservative.
Palace’s position: value, disruption, and the replacement problem
Oliver Glasner has been consistent about the broader reality: in modern football, everything is possible in a transfer window, but the club’s competitive needs come first. From Palace’s viewpoint, Guehi is not simply a saleable asset; he is their captain and organiser, the defender who manages spacing, tempo and the emotional temperature of games.
That is why Palace’s January stance is likely to be driven by two questions rather than rumours. First, does the fee compensate for losing a leader mid-season? Second, can Palace secure a replacement with enough quality and readiness to protect results immediately? This is the same dilemma that has stalled centre-back moves in previous windows: the market for reliable defenders is thin, and clubs do not sell good ones cheaply in January.
Even if Palace accept the principle of a sale, they will still want the deal to look like a premium, not a concession. That means any serious January bid would need to feel substantial in both headline value and structure, because Palace will be measured on whether they protected the team while protecting their balance sheet.
Liverpool’s long view: succession planning as much as recruitment
Arne Slot’s Liverpool have been linked with Guehi often enough that the logic is familiar. For Liverpool, this is not just about adding a centre-back; it is about sequencing their defensive cycle. Elite squads rarely rebuild in one window. They rotate profiles, manage ages, and aim to add players before the market forces their hand.
Guehi fits Liverpool’s needs on multiple layers. He is experienced in a high-tempo league, comfortable defending space behind him, and calm enough on the ball to avoid panicked clearances when pressing structures break. In a side that asks defenders to play, not just to defend, that composure is a genuine separator.
But Liverpool are also typically disciplined on price. If Palace’s number rises into a zone Liverpool deem inefficient for a January deal, they have historically been willing to wait, especially when they believe the player’s longer-term leverage could soften the fee later.
Arsenal’s angle: a title team still building its spine
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are at a stage where their recruitment is less about assembling talent and more about hardening the squad for decisive periods. A high-level centre-back is a classic “marginal gain” signing: fewer chaotic minutes, better game management, stronger resilience when fixtures compress.
Guehi also ticks the stylistic boxes Arsenal like in defenders: strong in duels without being reckless, quick enough to defend wide channels, and technically secure enough to be trusted in early build-up. If Arsenal are presented as a preferred option, it will be because the pathway looks coherent: clear role definition and a stable structure around him.
What City really need — and why the market is sceptical
City’s winter needs can change quickly if injuries hit the defensive unit, but their recruitment usually follows a precise logic. They do not often pay a January premium unless the situation becomes operationally urgent. If City are genuinely third in the queue, the more plausible scenario is that they are monitoring conditions: waiting for Palace’s price to settle, waiting for clarity on the player’s preference, and waiting to see whether their own squad availability forces action.
Tactically, Guehi is capable of playing in a possession-heavy side, but he would still need to adapt to City’s unique demands: defending high, controlling large spaces, and making the right decisions under sustained pressure. He can do it, but it is not a plug-and-play role for any defender, regardless of reputation.
Betting markets: why “confidence” often drifts in January
Transfer markets in betting tend to shorten quickly on the first strong headline, then drift once the practical constraints reassert themselves: price, contract timing, and the reality of January negotiation. A three-club race is also a classic volatility driver, because the market struggles to separate genuine intent from positioning.
For readers tracking the swings, Marc Guehi next club odds provide a cleaner snapshot of market sentiment than any single rumour cycle. If City continue to be framed as third choice, the market typically reflects that through longer prices and less “confidence” behind an Etihad move.
How this could develop from here
The central tension is timing. Palace can justify a hard line in January because replacing a captain mid-season is difficult. The buying clubs can justify patience because defenders of this level often become more attainable as the summer approaches and the player’s options broaden.
If a deal happens now, it will likely be because one club decides the competitive upside is worth paying for: not just a fee, but the January premium that comes with solving Palace’s disruption problem. If that moment does not arrive, the more realistic outcome is that the race remains open into the summer, with Liverpool and Arsenal still framed as the leading candidates and Manchester City positioned as the club ready to pounce if circumstances shift.